Europe Long-Range Forecast

This is Dr. Emily Schoerning with AR, and we’ve got your long-range climate forecast for Europe.  This is a special international edition focusing on our friends in Europe.  For our European viewers, I’m sorry, I’m not going to be able to dig down further into this data for you, but I want you to know that I care about you, and I want to show that by helping walk you through what I think is the best report I found with Europe’s climate outlook.  That is the European Environmental Agency’s report.  The title is Climate Change, Impacts, and Vulnerability in Europe, 2016.  You can download the pdf for free at the link. 

Here’s the link:

We’re going to look at some maps to help us understand what’s going on in this valuable, beautiful report.  This is put together very differently from the NCA report that I use for my climate forecasts for the US.  There’s details in here about the different models that are used, and the scientists who made this report model different things than the scientists who made the American report.  My personal favorite difference, which we will be covering in the highlights, is the bee map.  What’s good for bees is good for me, I think that’s just a wonderful resource to include.

We’re going to talk about water first.  Let’s start with sea level rise, then we’ll look at river projections and water deficit projections.

Sea Level Rise: 130

River projections: 139

Water deficit projections: 148

So there’s our work with water.  Now let’s look at some agriculturally important information.  First, the bees!  Then we’ll check out crop yields.

Bees: 171

Crop yields: 235

With all this information under our belt, I think we’re in a better position to take an informed look at what they call the “winners and losers” map. 

Winners and Losers: 275

Now, wrapping all of this up.  I hope you got some big picture information that’ll be useful to you as your understanding of what’s forecast for Europe as we move through this century.  And more importantly, I hope that if you need more information about where you live in Europe, that this video will help provide you with an entry point so that you can read the EEA report for yourself.  There is so much more in there than I’ve showed you in this video.  If you have questions as you’re reading through it, as you’re working through, get in touch with me and I will do my best to help you.

 Thanks for joining us for this first special international edition.  Our friends in Australia are the first folks who have gotten me a big pile of data for their region, thank you so much!  So our next international edition will give big picture coverage of Australia.  You should expect that in probably December of 2021.

This is Dr. Schoerning with AR, signing out.  Pleasehelp get the message out there.  There is hope.  We can prepare for what’s coming.  Let’s get ready.